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Les transports face au défi de la transition énergétique. Explorations entre passé et avenir, technologie et sobriété, accélération et ralentissement.

Abstract : The thesis deals with transport CO2 emissions in France. It questions the alignment of current trends and public policies with the French climate ambition of reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The national low carbon strategy identifies 5 drivers to decarbonize the transport sector: the moderation of transport demand, modal shift, load factor optimization, energy efficiency, and carbon intensity of energy. The thesis studies (1) their evolution in the past, (2) their possible changes by 2050, (3) the importance of travel speed, and (4) some policy implications. It appears that the acceleration of transports and the subsequent increase of transport demand, participated in the rise of transport emissions in the second half of the 20th century. Since the beginning of the 21st century, these variables are relatively stable, due to long-term trends towards saturation and short-term changes as the rise of oil prices and the implementation of speed control radars. In the future, important changes in terms of technology and sufficiency measures will be needed to reach carbon neutrality.
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Submitted on : Friday, December 18, 2020 - 2:58:09 PM
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Aurélien Bigo. Les transports face au défi de la transition énergétique. Explorations entre passé et avenir, technologie et sobriété, accélération et ralentissement.. Economies et finances. Institut Polytechnique de Paris, 2020. Français. ⟨NNT : 2020IPPAX068⟩. ⟨tel-03082127⟩

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